West preview: Avoiding surprise upsets
Top team in Western Conference hasn't survived past first round since 2004
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As such, the last several years have proven to be a graveyard for the presumed league heavyweights, with last year's upset of the Houston Dynamo by the New York Red Bulls the most noteworthy. Yet that is merely one in a long list of postseason ambushes. Not since 2004 has the top-seeded team in the Western Conference survived the first round.
Reading the tea leaves will prove even more difficult in 2009. Only three points separated first-place Los Angeles from fourth-place Chivas USA, and along with Houston and Seattle, each of the four teams in the Western bracket can make a strong case for why they'll reach the MLS Cup Final on Nov. 22.
No. 1 Los Angeles Galaxy vs. No. 4 Chivas USA
This matchup has "bloodbath" written all over it. At this very moment, you can bet that the likes of Los Angeles' Dema Kovalenko and Chivas USA's Paulo Nagamura are sharpening their cleats and breaking out the titanium shin guards. That's what happens when two teams who share the same building square off in the first round of the playoffs.And while regular season contests are no guarantee of future results, they seem a pretty fair indication of what will transpire in this series. In the three previous meetings this season, L.A. ground out a pair of narrow 1-0 victories along with an early season 0-0 tie. And given both teams' commitment to defense, a tight, cagey affair full of physical play seems in the offing.
Breaking down Los Angeles:
The good: Landon Donovan and David Beckham have been excellent for L.A. this season, but the main reason why the Galaxy find themselves back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005 is that they cut their goals against this season to 31 from 2008's hideous mark of 62. And for L.A. to prevail, their defense will once again need to be at their best.
That said, this is still Donovan's team, and while he spent considerable time with the national side this summer, his 12 goals and six assists in 25 games make him one of the players to stop. The problem for Chivas is that Donovan is capable of popping up just about anywhere on the field, and no matter where he lines up, Beckham is bound to find him with his incisive passes.
The bad: As improved as the team is defensively, the lack of speed possessed by center backs Gregg Berhalter and Omar Gonzalez remains a weakness. As long the team stays organized and compact then Berhalter's experience and Gonzalez's tough tackling can make life miserable for opposing forwards. But as FC Dallas showed in a 6-3 shellacking back on Sept. 12, when the game turns into a track meet, the Galaxy can be had.
The X-factor: L.A.'s defensive turnaround isn't just a function of the backline, as the midfield has done its bit as well. For most of the season, the holding role was filled capably by Stefani Miglioranzi, but with a groin injury likely sidelining him for the series, that task has fallen to Kovalenko, who lacks Miglioranzi's precision, but has considerably more bite. With Sacha Kljestan remaining the focal point of the Chivas attack, Kovalenko's ability to limit his influence will have a significant impact on the series' outcome.
The winning formula: The Galaxy's recipe is simple: Ride their stout defense along with the individual brilliance of Donovan and Beckham. If a player such as forward Edson Buddle can find his scoring touch, then so much the better.
Breaking down Chivas USA:
The good: Like any Preki-coached team, Chivas USA remain a stingy defensive outfit, aided in no small part by the comeback season of goalkeeper Zach Thornton. The effort turned in by defenders Carey Talley and Jonathan Bornstein, as well as Nagamura also played a big role.
As for Kljestan, the Red-and-White's attacking engine endured a wildly inconsistent season, but began having more positive outings towards the latter half of the campaign. If Chivas are to have any hope of surviving this postseason edition of the SuperClásico, then Kljestan will need to be operating near his peak.
The bad: Kljestan's impact is even more critical given the overall lack of scoring in this side. Preki has shuffled his forward line throughout the year in a bid to find some combination that works, with typically mixed results. Leading scorer Eduardo Lillingston has a nose for goal, but has struggled with his hold-up play and passing, which has seen take on more of a super-sub role in recent weeks.
As good as Thornton has been this season, he's looked very shaky in dealing with crosses during the last three weeks, and with Beckham on the field, you can bet that L.A. will test Thornton's decision making on flighted balls as often as possible.
The X-factor: After enduring a rather lackluster season, now would be the time for forward Maykel Galindo to step up. Galindo's pace is exactly what is needed to test L.A.'s backline, and partnering him with the more physical Maicon Santos provides the kind of variety in attack needed to make the Galaxy sweat.
The only problem is that Galindo has looked downright indifferent at times during the season, and the question of whether Preki can entrust him with the goalscoring responsibility remains difficult to answer.
The winning formula: Chivas will need to put immediate pressure on the Galaxy midfield, the better to limit the influence of Donovan and Beckham. They'll also need to free Kljestan to make the kind of slashing runs that can cause problems for opponents. Kljestan sprung Galindo for a breakaway goal against San Jose back on Oct. 17. That kind of quick thinking, combined with their usual compliment of rugged defending, could be enough to topple the No. 1 seed for the fifth year running.
No. 2 Houston Dynamo vs. No. 3 Seattle Sounders FC
Series involving the second and third seeds are usually tossups, and this one is no different. Granted, Sounders FC had a leg up during the regular season, going 2-0-1 in all competitions, but both of Seattle's wins came with the Dynamo fielding a makeshift backline, something that won't be the case in the playoffs.Sounders FC did produce one of their better performances of the year in garnering a 1-1 tie in Houston when the Dynamo were largely at full strength. That match saw plenty of chances at either end, but expect things to tighten up now that the postseason is here.
Breaking down Houston:
The good: For the third year in a row, the Dynamo possessed one of the best defenses in MLS, tying Seattle for the top mark with just 29 goals allowed. Geoff Cameron has come into his own as a central defender alongside Bobby Boswell, and goalkeeper Pat Onstad, at age 41 the oldest player in MLS, has continued his consistently high level of play.
Midfielders Brad Davis and Stuart Holden have provided plenty of verve to the Dynamo attack, while Ricardo Clark, assuming he gets over a knee strain that sidelined him for Houston's season-ending 3-2 win against Chivas USA, will be counted on to anchor the midfield.
The bad: The Dynamo haven't looked themselves during the latter half of the season, although why has been difficult to pinpoint. A packed schedule and a virulent lack of discipline have made it difficult for head coach Dominic Kinnear to find a settled lineup. Complacency has also crept into Houston's game, with the Dynamo nearly blowing big leads on several occasions.
Such difficulties weren't enough to completely sidetrack Houston's regular season, but in the playoffs they can often be the difference between progressing or going home early.
The X-factor: The Dynamo have long thrived on their flank play, and while Davis has enjoyed an excellent season, he'll need his teammate on the opposite flank, Brian Mullan, to be at his havoc-creating best.
The memory of last year's infamous playoff upset at the hands of the New York Red Bulls should provide plenty of motivation.
The winning formula: Recapturing their discipline on both sides of the ball is what will propel the Dynamo into the Western Conference final. Defensively that will require Clark to put the clamps on Seattle playmaker Freddie Ljungberg, while Davis and Mullan will need to provide forwards like Brian Ching and Luis Angel Landin with the needed service from the flanks.
Breaking down Seattle:
The good: Like Houston, Seattle's strength has proven to be their defense, one that has few weaknesses. Goalkeeper Kasey Keller provides vast experience in net, as does the central pairing of Tyrone Marshall and Jhon Kennedy Hurtado. Leo Gonzalez and James Riley provide solid cover out wide.
In attack, Ljungberg has almost singlehandedly broken Seattle out of their scoring funk, serving up four assists in his last two games. Fredy Montero has enjoyed an excellent first season in MLS with 12 goals, while Brad Evans can create problems with his late runs from midfield.
The bad: Offensively, the Sounders would appear to have an embarrassment of riches. Having the likes of Ljungberg, Montero, Steve Zakuani and Nate Jaqua would give any opponent pause. Incredibly, this hasn't necessarily translated into a goal bonanza. Jaqua's tally last week against FC Dallas was the team's first goal at home since July 11, a streak that saw them endure four consecutive shutouts at Qwest Field.
And for all the talk about Houston's recent lack of discipline, Sounders FC earned as many red cards this season (eight) as the Dynamo did.
The X-factor: A pair of matchups out wide might help tip the scales in Seattle's favor. Zakuani's speed could cause problems against Houston right back Andrew Hainault, while Jaqua's height gives him an advantage against Mike Chabala. This could force Davis and Mullan to help out defensively, and spend less time attacking.
The winning formula: Given their profligacy at home, Seattle need to make sure that their classy buildup play is rewarded with clinical finishing. Holding midfielder Osvaldo Alonso, who lately hasn't had the same jump in his legs that he had earlier in the year, will need to make sure that Holden and Davis -- when he tucks inside -- aren't allowed the room to deliver pinpoint service to the Houston forwards.
Jeff Carlisle is a regular contributor to ESPN Soccernet, and covers the San Jose Earthquakes for Center Line Soccer and MLSnet.com. Jeff can be reached at eljefe1@yahoo.com. Views and opinions expressed in this column are the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
