Clubs playing with caution down stretch
Numbers reveal goals at premium with postseason berths on line
Individual soccer matches seen through the prism of numbers can sometimes be misleading, as the statistical vagaries of shots, shots on goal, corner kicks, etc., won't always tell the whole story. They can be vaguely informative, but there's too much going on between the numbers to reveal the real nitty-gritty of a match. Soccer is unlike many other U.S. sports this way.
But when gathering up a larger sampling, the numbers start to say a little more. To wit, look at the scores of MLS matches in October, as more teams have gotten cautious, more playoff conscious, and as goals are coming at more of a premium.
Round 31 was just completed, leaving the postseason race in the most jumbled of muddles. There will be time to dissect all that heading into this week's white knuckle Round 32 conclusion. (And you'll need time, as well as patience, to navigate the dizzying array of scenarios involving seven clubs still seeking three remaining playoff berths. G' luck!)
(Oh, wait! One more quick thing: everyone has noticed that all the realistic playoff pursuers who desperately need points from Round 32 to make the postseason are on the road, right? Yep, Toronto FC, D.C. United, Colorado, FC Dallas and New England all play away from home. That's just delicious.)
For now, we'll narrow the focus to the overall mindset that has assumed control, one of caution as teams lean on protection rather than bold attack as the order of the day.
October matches (17 of them so far) have averaged a paltry 1.94 goals a match. That's just about a full goal less than September, where 33 matches generated 2.85 goals a match, a number that's more commensurate with historic league scoring totals.
Further, in those 17 October matches only three have generated more than two goals. Let that sink in: The overwhelming majority of contests (14 of the 17) have finished scoreless, 1-0 or 1-1.
Finally, Round 31 included two scoreless draws. That was the first round of Major League Soccer matches since early July that included a pair of goal-less draws.
It's pretty easy to see why this is happening. Teams probing for ways out of the mire and into the playoffs, or teams seeking better positioning, grow naturally cautious nearer the finish line. They prefer to play it safe over the bulk of the match, looking to exploit opportunities surgically rather than creating a bunch of chances so that two or three will find their way in. Meanwhile, they avoid the scourge of falling behind early at all cost.
For the "how," take a look at the Round 31 closer, as the Los Angeles Galaxy visited Houston. While both these clubs had playoffs berths in pocket as they kicked off on a sunny fall afternoon at Robertson Stadium, the match still had something to say about postseason seedings and that all-important home-field advantage going forward.
Maybe it was just that Landon Donovan wasn't in the starting lineup. Or maybe Bruce Arena is putting the safety on the weapon, so to speak, getting his team into super-defensive playoff mode. For whatever reason, the Galaxy certainly seemed extra intent on getting a lot of guys behind the ball and dropping back a few extra yards to make things especially tough on Dynamo attackers. Outside backs Todd Dunnivant and Sean Franklin rarely ranged forward. Same for defensive midfielder Dema Kovalenko.
In the end it paid off as Los Angeles split the points in the 0-0 match, positioning Arena's team to potentially claim points at home this week against San Jose and pull into the lead in that three-way tie at the top of the West. After Sunday's match players in both Robertson Stadium locker rooms noted how the match unfolded with "playoff" type intensity, which usually means tighter marking and extra aggressive defending overall. And a play-for-tie mentality frequently prevails for the travelers.
"This is the same kind of atmosphere you get in the playoffs," L.A. goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts said. "Playing on the road, I think we did enough to get the point."
It was about the same in the weekend's other scoreless draw, where Chicago sat back and waited for chances to counter, and where New England simply didn't have enough offensive muscle to find a way through.
"I think they came to be tight," Revolution manager Steve Nicol said. "Certainly, the first 25 minutes of the game, we really put them under some good pressure and really just couldn't finish it off and get that goal to get us ahead. From 25 on, it was probably pretty even -- they were trying to break on us, they had a couple of chances on the break."
TACTICAL CORNER
• Steve Cronin had a wonderful debut in goal for D.C. United (who were starting their fourth different goalkeeper this year.) Not only was his shot-stopping solid, but his presence seemed to have a calming influence on United's back line, the members of which all had good matches as Columbus applied fairly steady pressure over the last 60 minute or so while hunting for the equalizer.
• Tom Soehn went back to a 3-5-2 alignment for United, hoping to get more from playmaker Christian Gomez by adding extra protection in two holding midfielders. Gomez still struggled, however, and United looked perhaps a little better as Jaime Moreno came in to replace the former MLS Most Valuable Player in the 58th minute.
• Danny Szetela made his third and longest MLS appearance yet for United, entering in the 66th minute to replace Thabiso Khumalo. Khumalo had started alongside Luciano Emilio at striker, but had moved out to the wing and was struggling with his defensive responsibilities in that wide spot.
• Columbus continues to rest starters (or allow one to recover in the case of Chad Marshall). Manager Robert Warzycha sat three regulars in the loss at United.
• Also moving to a 3-5-2 for the weekend biggies was Chris Cummins at Toronto FC. Nick Garcia was removed from the TFC lineup as Cummins preferred Emmanuel Gomez, Nana Attakora and Adrian Serioux in the back. Meanwhile, Julian de Guzman was stationed in front of the back three, with help from Amado Guevara and Dwayne De Rosario in front of him. Also notable in that setup is how much defensive work TFC gets out of rookie Sam Cronin. He was out on the right but squeezed inside frequently to add an extra body in the middle, freeing Guevara and De Rosario from some of the defensive burden.
• Real Salt Lake manager Jason Kreis dumped his recently favored 4-3-3 for a 4-4-2 in two huge matches last week. Kyle Beckerman and Will Johnson held the center of the midfield while Javier Morales was asked to do the playmaking from a spot on the left. Meanwhile, in both matches, leading scorer Robbie Findley was left on the sidelines to start the contest (although he did enter as a sub in both contests).
• Incredible as it seems, Houston has had a player ejected from its last five MLS matches (and six of its last seven), as Brian Ching was the player guilty Sunday of losing his cool. Manager Dominic Kinnear sounds like a man struggling to find answers, as Houston has earned just seven of a possible 21 points lately. The ejections have certainly played a part as the Dynamo are limping into the playoffs rather than surging in forcefully. "We've talked about it, but I can't put an earpiece in their ear and tell them to just walk away from situations. Our guy just made a bad decision today."
• Speaking of the Dynamo discipline issues: Immediately after Ching's ejection, Dynamo striker Dominic Oduro was rightly carded for diving when Galaxy center back Gregg Berhalter stuck out a leg, then pulled it back quickly only to watch Oduro launch himself. In this case it didn't mean playing a man down or a subsequent suspension. But why in the world Oduro would dive at a point where he was by the defender and could have potentially been in cleanly on goal, well, only he could say.
• In New England, what in the world is going on with center back Emmanuel Osei and goalkeeper Matt Reis? After last week's dreadful communications blunder, which proved so costly in a one-goal game, the same pair got signals crossed twice in the first half Saturday against Chicago. Both caused an unneeded mess inside the penalty area, although the Revs didn't have to pay the ultimate price this time.
• It really is amazing how many times sloppy or imprecise finishing has bitten RSL this year. Fabian Espindola and Yura Movsisyan both missed opportunities Saturday to keep the gang from Rio Tinto in the playoff race. As it is, the Lakers are still in it, but the odds are surely too long.
• New England manager Steve Nicol always preaches the gospel of possession, with added emphasis on not losing the ball in bad spots. But right now New England is a team that struggles to string much possession together. Clearly, they miss Steve Ralston, the side's best possession specialist. Otherwise, players simply need to manage simple passing and trapping a little better and maybe make some better choices with the ball. As it is, the personnel on hand may not be up for the job if Saturday's sloppy night of passing at Gillette Stadium was any indication.
• As good as Seattle rookie Steve Zakuani is on the attack -- and he was thorn once again on Saturday for Kansas City's defense -- he really does need to balance his game with a little more attention to the defensive end. He's lucky, in a way, that he plays for a manager who favors attacking soccer. Because I'd wager a Sigi Schmid bobblehead that Zakuani wouldn't be on the field for a lot of managers around MLS. Saturday at CommunityAmerica, Zakuani left Leo Gonzalez stranded several times, and it showed as the Sounders FC left back was rounded fairly consistently.
Steve Davis is a freelance writer who has covered Major League Soccer since its inception. Steve writes for www.DailySoccerFix.com and can be reached at BigTexSoccer@yahoo.com. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
