Reds remain alive in MLS playoff race
Toronto stands six points out of postseason with four games to play
It looked as if TFC's bid to make the MLS Cup Playoffs had run short after the 1-1 draw with the Dynamo at BMO Field. After the match, TFC head coach John Carver talked about how his team was playing for pride, to entertain the fans and to earn contracts for next season, as he figured his side was all but eliminated.
On Monday, however, Carver seemed almost amazed that the rest of the weekend's results had left Toronto still an outsider in the playoff race, but still alive.
"It's going to be tough and we need results to go [our way] because usually you'd like it to be in your own hands and just worry about yourself," Carver said. "But the way the results have gone, who's to say we can't go and get the three wins or four wins or whatever it needs to get us in there? Everybody is beating everybody, everyone is taking points off each other and nobody's taking the initiative."
After 26 rounds of MLS action, only four clubs (Columbus, New England, Chicago and Houston) have reached the 40-point threshold, with only league leaders Columbus already guaranteed a playoff berth. After the top four, the league table gets very congested. Just eight points separates fifth-place Chivas from 14th-place Toronto, which means that even a two-game win streak from the Reds would put them right in the thick of the race.
The three teams directly in front of TFC in the Eastern Conference -- New York, D.C. United and Kansas City -- all lost on the weekend, thus keeping the Reds within striking distance in their own division. The top three teams in each conference automatically qualify for the postseason, with the next two highest finishers overall (currently New York and Real Salt Lake, with 35 and 34 points, respectively) grabbing the last two playoff spots as wild cards.
Toronto stands six points back of that final playoff spot, thus making Saturday's match in New York perhaps the true must-win that will determine TFC's season.
"I've sat down with the guys and said look at this, there's 12 points to play for, we're six points behind it, we have to go to New York next week, one of the sides that are just above us, so that's a six-pointer again," Carver said. "We've seen what happened over the weekend -- [New York] get beat 5-4 against Colorado and we did a double over Colorado.
"If I can take what I got in the second half [against Houston] and get it for 90 minutes in New York, we'll win the game."
Of course, these wins are easier said than done for a Reds side that has been starved for victories. The two wins against Colorado that Carver cited are Toronto's only two wins since the beginning of June, a 2-10-7 stretch over 19 matches that essentially erased TFC's early-season success.
A big reason for Toronto's struggles has been, of all things, a lack of success at home. Though TFC has lost just twice all season at BMO Field, they haven't been able to fully capitalize at Major League Soccer's most intimidating venue -- the Reds have a league-high seven home draws.
Three of those ties have come in the last four home games, and against such top clubs as Columbus, New England and last Saturday against Houston. This failure to maximize points at home, and a failure to put games away after securing an early lead, is what may end up being the difference in such a tight playoff race.
"[It's] even more frustrating because if we had picked up something in Kansas City [a 2-0 loss to K.C. on Sept. 20] and I think we did enough to win the game on Saturday, that six points is a huge difference," Carver said. "But it's not just what's happened over the last two games, it's over the past 10 games or 12 games because of the goals we've conceded late in games. That's what is going to hurt us in the end if we don't make it."
Three of TFC's final four games are on the road, where the Reds are just 2-10-0 all season. Given that Toronto gains nothing by keeping the score close, the Reds will be going all out in New York on Saturday with an increased focus on attacking. The first sign of this shift in strategy may have been seen last weekend, when TFC employed a 3-5-2 formation rather than their favored 4-4-2 lineup.
"I wanted my two center halves, [Hunter] Freeman and Kevin [Harmse], to pass the ball and create something," Carver said. "It was quite an offensive team because three points was all I was interested in. I had to change the shape again because I wasn't getting what I wanted, and as soon as I did it made a huge difference."
Another factor in the lineup switch was the continued absence of defender Marco Velez. Harmse started on the back line in place of Velez even though Velez's two-match suspension for a red card against Chivas on Sept. 6 was up. Velez was available on the bench but didn't see any action in the match.
"I looked at Kevin Harmse and I know he can play in there. Kevin had a good game, I was quite happy with his performance," Carver said. "I need competition for places because Marco might think twice about doing what he did because he loses his place on the team. That's what I want, I want healthy competition."
Mark Polishuk is a contributor to MLSnet.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Soccer or its clubs.
